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Raleigh Market Reports

New Home Sales Show Unexpected Increase in October 2009

New Home Inventory at Lowest Level Since 1971

The US Department of Commerce released surprising statistics today regarding new home sales across the nation.

October 2009 showed a 6.2% increase in new home sales versus September 2009.

October 2009 new home sales were also up 5.1% from October 2008. 

This is the sixth time new home sales have risen over the past seven months, according to reports.

Additionally, new home inventory is now at record low levels.

There were 239,000 new homes on the market nationally at the end of October 2009.

This is a 6.7 month supply at current new home sales levels.

Available new homes are at their lowest level since 1971, according to Michelle Meyer, an economist with Barclays Capital.

Many builders are shying away from "spec homes" that may sit on the market, and instead are focusing on "building to order." 

Homebuyers in the Raleigh area are sometimes surprised to find little standing inventory, and to hear that most new homes are selling at 95-100% of asking price.

Find out more about the Raleigh market here:

New Home Inventory in Raleigh 

I've been reading more of these stories every day, and just had to share.  Brian Block of Northern VA & D.C. Real Estate works in the Arlington, VA area, but I've heard similar stories in markets across the US, and even right here in Raleigh. 

In Raleigh NC, the price points most likely to have multiple offers are at $200K and under, but it's not unheard of for a higher price point in a prime location.  And Johnston County's Parade of Homes has noted the highest attendance in the past 4 years! 

Bottom line - offering 25%, 50%, or even 75% of asking price just isn't going to result in a sale.  Most sellers have already adjusted their asking prices to reflect the differences in the market, and most homes are selling for at least 95% of these asking prices. 

Have a great week...

Raleigh Durham Chapel Hill Market Report - Relocation Information

August 2009 vs August 2008 - Resale Listings and Showings Year Over Year

Showings in the Triangle Area showed a 5% increase over the previous August, the first year over year increase since the real estate market started to slow.

What's also interesting is the percent change in number of resale listings by area.  The number of resale homes available has decreased significantly in about half the Triangle market areas, while showings have increased in nearly every area.

Cary, Apex, Morrisville - resale listings up 16%, resale showings down by 3%

North Raleigh/Falls Lake Area - resale listings up 2%, resale showings up by 7%

Durham County - resale listings down 5%, resales showings up by 4%

Southwest Cary, Holly Springs, and Fuquay-Varina - resale listings down 3%, resale showings flat

Wake Forest - resale listings down 9%, resale showings up by 24%

Johnston County - resale listings flat, resale showings up by 18%

Raleigh Inside the Beltline - resale listings up 14%, resale showings up by 6%

Chapel Hill, Carrboro - resale listings up 12%, resale showings down by 4%

North East Raleigh - resale listings down 10%, resale showings up by 8%

Southeast Raleigh, Garner - resale listings down 4%, resale showings up by 8%

East Wake County - resale listings down 14%, resales showings up by 5%

Chatham County - resale listings up 17%, resale showings up by 14%

Bottom Line for Resale Buyers - If you're looking at resale homes in North Raleigh, Durham County, Wake Forest, Johnston County, Northeast Raleigh, Southeast Raleigh/Garner, or East Wake County, you've got a lot of competition!  Resale listings are DOWN, and resale showings are UP, in some cases significantly.

Looking for a deal?  Try an area where there are more listings and fewer buyers.

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This Wake County Resale Showings Report brought to you by Stanton Homes.

All statistical information courtesy of Stacey Anfindsen's TARR (Triangle Area Residential Realty) Reports.  Anfindsen analyzes sales and inventory of Triangle real estate. 

Market Report - Raleigh NC (Triangle Area) - Raleigh Relocation Information

Raleigh Relocation Information

Toll Brothers Reduces Incentives

First Contract Increase in 4 Years, Reports Buyers "Increasingly Confident"

In yet another good sign for the housing market, Toll Brothers stock jumped today on positive reports.

The luxury homebuilder announced that:

- New home contracts up 44% from second fiscal quarter this year.

- First annual increase in signed contracts in 4 years.

- Incentives being scaled back, no longer necessary to "get customers in the door". 

- Only 9% cancellation rate, lowest cancellation rate in 3 years.

Toll Brothers stock is up 11% this morning on the positive news.

Read full article here.

Inventory is reducing, particularly in lower price points, and we've heard incentives are not as good as they were a few months ago.  Still some bargaining power in some areas, but it's starting to feel like we're off the bottom and on our way back up to a "reasonable" market.

 

Want to see the most recent Raleigh area market reports?

More Raleigh Market Reports 

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Raleigh Relocation Information

Pending Home Sales Rise for 5th Straight Month

Resales Rise for 3rd Straight Month - Best Since July 2003!

It appears the worst is over, both nationally and locally, for the housing market.  Good news for anyone relocating or even looking for a move-up home.

According to today's news:

- Pending Home Sales in June rose 3.6 percent to 94.6, for a fifth consecutive month of gains.

- Last time we saw five consecutive months of increases was July 2003.

- Home resales increased 4% in June, and rose for the third month in a row (first time in 5 years).

In the South, pending home sales jumped 7.1 in June, for a total of 100.7.

Of course real estate does vary regionally, and prices can vary considerably throughout the Triangle.  But it does appear that the bottom of the real estate market has come.....and gone. 

Read Yahoo News Story

Will My New Raleigh Area Home Appreciate? What's the Best City to Buy a Home?

Durham NC Inventory Disappearing! 23% Down...

 

 

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New Homes Garner NC

Garner Inventory Down Nearly 20% From 2008

Easier to Buy A Garner Home in 2009

Why?  Because there are fewer homes to look at!  That means fewer top choices to pick between, which can make the buying process a little easier. 

Here's the April 2009 Inventory Levels, by price point.

As you can see, inventory is down significantly in every Garner NC price point but the 0-149.9 (which is level), and the Condo/Townhouse category, which has increased from 26 to 41 listings. 

This gets even more dramatic when looking at a percentage basis:

In April 2009, we see dramatic inventory decreases starting at the $150K price point and continuing across all other price points in Garner NC.  The selections are actually getting thinnest above $300K. 

Total Garner NC inventory is down by 17% in April 2009 vs April 2008.

Surprising, since first time homebuyers have been increasing in the market - would have thought the lowest price buckets would see the highest inventory declines.

But this could also be a reflection of fewer homes being built in other price points.  It's now more likely that a homebuyer will select their new home and then break ground, rather than choosing from a variety of "already completed" new homes. 

 

Want to see the most recent Raleigh area market reports?

More Raleigh Market Reports

 

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Dropping Home Values - Is It As Bad As They Say?

How Averages and Medians Can Skew the View

Nearly every national housing article mentions a reduction in AVERAGE and/or MEDIAN home values.  Now it's true that values are dropping in some areas.  But it's not as bad as it looks.

Here's why:

A change in SALES MIX can cause AVERAGE and MEDIAN to reduce - but just because the average and median have gone down, it doesn't necessarily follow that your home (or the home you plan to purchase) is worth less.

Here's an example of what happens when first time homebuyers start taking advantage of the terrific tax credit.

Suppose in an average month, your town has the following home sales:

1 - $500,000 home

1 - $400,000 home

2 - $300,000 homes

3 - $200,000 homes

3 - $150,000 homes

 

 

 

To find the average, add all the values of the homes, then divide by the number of homes sold.  The average is $255,000.  The MEDIAN is the "middle value" when all the numbers are lined up from smallest to largest, in this case the median is $200,000.

One Year Later - Recalculating Averages

OK, now suppose one year later, the sales mix has changed.  "Jumbo loans" are much harder to get, and the interest rates are much higher than FHA or conventional financing.  So the $500,000 buyer decides to wait until they can make a bigger down payment.  In the meantime, the first time homebuyers have increased.

Here's the new "sales mix":

1 - $400,000 home

2 - $300,000 homes

3 - $200,000 homes

7 - $150,000 homes

Here's the catch - and why averages and medians can be misleading

The AVERAGE sales price in this month is now only $203,846 - or nearly 20% lower than the previous year.

The MEDIAN sales price is now $150,000, or about 25% lower than the previous year.

THE OVERALL HOME VALUES HAVE NOT CHANGED, JUST THE MIX OF HOME SALES!!!!

Bottom line - AVERAGE and MEDIAN is affected by BOTH the sales mix AND the appreciation rates - and a change in mix can affect these measures even more strongly than a change in actual values. 

In the Raleigh area, we're still seen positive appreciation every month - read more here!

Appreciation Rates Wake County - Best Places to Buy 

Wake County Inventory Levels April 2009

Luxury Home Inventory - First Quarter 2009

Durham NC Inventory Disappearing! 23% Down...

So next time you hear that the average or median values have decreased, find out whether the mix of sales has changed, AND find out what the appreciation rates are.  A recent comparitive analysis and an in depth look at appreciation rates will still tell you more than any average or median will.

 

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North Durham NC Inventory Dropping Dramatically

Almost 1/4 Less Than Last Year - Selections Thinning

First Quarter statistics are in for Durham County - and the results might be surprising.

If you've been searching for your next home in Durham NC, you may have thought the selection was a little thinner.  You're right.  Inventory is dropping dramatically from last year, and the best homes at the best prices are sometimes only available for a few days.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

North Durham Shows Significant Reduction in Lower Price Points

Here's the available inventory levels by price point in North Durham.  As you can see, all price points below $500K show much lower inventory levels than last year.

Not only that, but New Construction sales in Durham have significantly INCREASED in the first quarter.  New Construction in Durham is up 48.7%, with 171 unit sales in 1Q 2009, versus 115 unit sales in 1Q 2008.

 

Where is Inventory Decreasing Most Rapidly in North Durham?

The most significant inventory drops actually occured in the $300-$399K, $400-499K, and $800-899K price points.

Surprising, since first time homebuyers have been increasing in the market - would have thought the lowest price buckets would see the highest inventory declines.

But this could also be a reflection of fewer homes being built in other price points.

 

 

 

Durham NC Home Inventory Levels

These percentages reflect both new construction and resale inventory.  As you can see, selections have thinned considerably across nearly every price point in North Durham. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other Triangle Area Market Reports

 

Wake County Inventory Levels April 2009

Luxury Home Inventory - First Quarter 2009

Appreciation Rates Wake County - Best Places to Buy 

 

 

Is the Buyers Market Going Away?

Based on pending sales and numbers of properties on the market, it looks like this trend will continue, and we may reach a seller's market by the end of the year. 

Surprising? Perhaps not so much - interest rates have never been lower, and builders have been slowing the new home process. 

 

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Wake County NC Market Report - Inventory Levels April 2009

Number of Available Homes Continues to Decrease - 5% Lower than Last Year

Inventory levels in Wake County (Raleigh, Morrisville, Cary, Holly Springs, Fuquay, Wake Forest) appear to have peaked in October, 2008 and have since been on a steady decline, as homebuyers take advantage of bargains in the market and record low interest rates, along with the First Time Homebuyers Tax Credit.

April 2009 inventory levels were 5% below April 2008 levels, according to Triangle MLS reports.  This follows a pattern of steadily decreasing inventory over the past months.

There is a 7.3 month supply of inventory in Wake County as of April 2009.  Months of supply have also been steadily decreasing.  Anything over 6 months of supply is considered a buyer's market, but the months of supply have been steadily decreasing since December, and are now at low 2008 levels. 

Inventory steadily increased from early 2008 until late Fall 2009.  Since then, inventory has been steadily decreasing. 

Is the Buyers Market Going Away?

Based on pending sales and numbers of properties on the market, it looks like this trend will continue, and we may reach a seller's market by the end of the year. 

Surprising? Perhaps not so much - interest rates have never been lower, and builders have been slowing the new home process. 

 

You may also be interested in:

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Cary/Apex/Morrisville Luxury Home Market Report

Inventory Shrinking and Selections Narrowing - First Quarter 2009

The number of new homes available at luxury price points - $500,000 and above - has been steadily shrinking in the prime Cary/Apex/Morrisville area.

There are fewer homes available now than in 2008 in every price point below $900,000.

And new home inventory has been reduced by a whopping 24% since the same quarter in 2008!  Thus if you're looking for a new luxury home this year, you have 3 homes to look at right now for every 4 homes that were available last year. 

Resale home inventory in Cary/Apex/Morrisville has increased, from 178 homes in 1Q 2008 to 184 homes in 1Q 2009.

New home inventory in Cary/Apex/Morrisville has decreased, from 157 homes in1Q 2008 to 119 homes in 1Q 2009.

Here's a breakdown by price point:

As you can see, inventory has reduced in every price point except the $900K-$2mil market in the Cary/Apex/Morrisville NC area.

Surprising? Perhaps not so much - interest rates have never been lower, and builders have been slowing the new home process.  It won't be surprising to see an even greater decrease in inventory levels over the next quarter. 

Want to see the most recent Raleigh area market reports?

More Raleigh Market Reports

All statistical information courtesy of Stacey Anfindsen's TARR (Triangle Area Residential Realty) Reports.  Anfindsen analyzes sales and inventory of Triangle real estate.